Generation of ‘ghost children’ who have given up on school after Covid ‘will create tidal wave of youth crime by 2027’

A ‘tidal wave of youth crime‘ will hit Britain if action is not taken to reverse a post-Covid surge in school absence, a think tank analysis has warned.

The Centre for Social Justice has identified a generation of ‘ghost children’ – those who are set to be persistently truant in their final year of school – if current absence rates are not addressed.

This risks an additional 9,000 extra young offenders – including 2,000 more violent offenders – by 2027 if left unresolved, the think tank found.

They focused their study on pupils projected to leave school in Year 11 in 2025 – a so-called ‘lost generation’ who began secondary school just as Covid lockdowns hit.

The CSJ, which was set up by ex-Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, warned of a £100million a year cost to the taxpayer from soaring youth crime linked to school absence.

The Centre for Social Justice warned of a £100million a year cost to the taxpayer from soaring youth crime linked to school absence

There will be an additional 9,000 extra young offenders – including 2,000 more violent offenders – by 2027 if school absence rates are left unresolved, the think tank found

The number of severely absent pupils – those missing more than half of their school time – has more than doubled since 2019

Rates of school absence have soared since the first Covid lockdown in 2020, their new report stated.

The numbers of persistently absent pupils – those missing more than 10 per cent of school time – rose to 32 per cent in 2022 among Year 11 pupils, up from 16 per cent just before the pandemic.

The number of persistently absent pupils rose by over 800,000 since 2019 to 1.7 million last autumn.

It has also been shown that the number of severely absent pupils – those missing more than half of their school time – has more than doubled since 2019.

The CSJ analysis of Department for Education and Ministry of Justice research found persistently absent pupils are three times as likely to commit an offence by age 17 than pupils fully attending school.

The think tank is calling for ministers to ‘radically upscale’ their response to school absence, including a national rollout of ‘attendance mentors’ to tackle the underlying cause of absence.

Andy Cook, chief executive of the Centre for Social Justice, said: ‘Government needs to take absence seriously if we are to stop a lost generation of children suffering the consequences of lockdown for decades to come.

‘Alongside stunting academic attainment, children with a history of school absence are three times more likely to commit an offence than those who routinely attend school.

‘For the sake of these children’s future – and for the safety of our streets – government must stop tinkering around the edges and accelerate the national roll out of attendance mentors, ensuring all children benefit from an education that sets them up for life.’