Ukraine’s air defenses could fall to Russia by the middle of next month as Zelensky‘s army runs out of weapons to protect its skies, leaked Pentagon papers claim.
One of the documents, dated February 23 and marked ‘Secret,’ outlines in detail how Ukraine’s S-300 air defense systems would be depleted by May 2 at the current usage rate, after repeated attacks by Russian forces.
The same New York Times report claimed that Ukraine’s air defenses protecting troops on the front line could be ‘completely reduced’ by May 23. It comes as the Justice Department launched a criminal investigation into the leak, according to CBS News.
Vladimir Putin‘s ground forces have been badly-depleted by the war. But he has held his air force of 485 fighter jets back – far more than the 85 Ukraine has in its military.
Russia’s fleet also includes far more sophisticated fifth generation planes including the Su-57, while Ukraine’s pilots have to make do with MiG-29s, which first flew in 1983.
If Ukraine can no longer defend its skies, Putin could ramp up fighter jet attacks on Zelensky’s forces, dramatically tilting the 15 month-long conflict in his favor.
Such closely-guarded information could be of great use to Russian forces, and Ukraine said its president Volodymyr Zelensky and top security officials met on Friday to discuss ways to prevent leaks.
Last week, the Biden administration announced it would send additional air defense interceptors and munitions as part of a $2.6 billion aid package. But it’s feared that it won’t be enough to save Zelensky’s army.
Ukraine’s air defenses could be depleted within weeks – making the country vulnerable to Russia President Vladimir Putin’s fighter jets, newly leaked Pentagon documents suggests
Such closely-guarded information could be of great use to Russian forces, and Ukraine said its president Volodymyr Zelensky and top security officials met to discuss ways to prevent leaks
One of the documents, dated February 23 and marked ‘Secret,’ outlines in detail how Ukraine’s S-300 air defense systems would be depleted by May 2 at the current usage rate
These are two of the leaked documents which have been shared by the New York Times
This document appears to show the state of Ukraine’s air defenses in February, and in May when it is anticipated they’ll be badly depleted
Sunday’s news is likely to raise fresh questions about the United States’ monitoring of Ukraine’s war. It is said to know far more about how Putin’s generals are planning their conflict than Zelensky’s, despite funding the latter to the tune of $200 billion.
Zelensky continues to pressure the US for F-16 fighter jets, with any such loan set to cost taxpayers hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.
The classified documents that appeared online, with details ranging from Ukraine’s air defenses to Israel’s Mossad spy agency, have U.S. officials scrambling to identify the leak’s source, with some experts saying it could be an American.
U.S. officials said the investigation is in its early stages, and there is still no solid theory as to who may be behind the leak.
In a statement on Sunday, the Pentagon said it was reviewing the validity of the photographed documents that ‘appear to contain sensitive and highly classified material.’
Some giving battlefield casualty estimates from Ukraine appeared to have been altered to minimize Russian losses. It is not clear why at least one is marked unclassified but includes top secret information. Some documents are marked ‘NOFORN,’ meaning they cannot be released to foreign nationals.
The report marked ‘Secret’ details how Ukraine’s most important air defense weapons could be fully depleted by mid-April to early May.
In the early days of the war, Ukraine relied on the these air defense weapons – S-300 and the Buk to target aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles – which make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s protection against fighter aircraft.
But they managed to keep Russia at bay as Putin pulled back his troops.
Ukraine managed to keep Putin’s fighter jets at bay as he pulled the troops back. Pictured: Su-34 jet fighter of the Russian Air Force firing missiles during Exercise Aviadarts 2018.
Because according to the leaked documents, Ukraine’s stockpile is rapidly depleting, which in turn, opens up a window for Russian planes to attack
Putin could decide that it is now safe enough to send in Russia’s ‘valuable and numerous fighter jets and bombers to attack Ukrainian positions and artillery’
‘They made the choice that they were not going to sacrifice their knights for their pawns,’ Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, told the NYT.
‘Instead, they’re going to throw those mobilized troops without proper air support, because they’re a more plentiful resource.’
One U.S. military official said that providing air defense system reinforcements to Ukraine is key in helping the country regain territory in its planned spring counteroffensive.
Because according to the leaked documents, their stockpile is rapidly depleting, which in turn, opens up a window for Russian planes to attack.
Putin could decide that it is now safe enough to send in Russia’s ‘valuable and numerous fighter jets and bombers to attack Ukrainian positions and artillery,’ senior Pentagon officials said, according to the New York Times.
‘Russia still remains a bit fearful of flying into Ukraine because there’s still a fair amount of density of Ukrainian kit,’ U.S. General Philip Breedlove told the NYT.
Such a move could be a risky one for Putin.
‘Just because he brings it back in play doesn’t mean it’s going to have smashing success,’ General Breedlove said.
Another report of the leaked documents has the number of Russian fighter jets currently deployed in Ukraine at 485 compared with 85 Ukrainian jets
However, European countries have stepped up efforts to reinforce the country’s air defenses, providing missiles for Ukraine’s existing systems, like its Soviet-era S-300s. Pictured: A Ukrainian Airforce MIG 29 perform during the annual Air Show in 2016
Officials say it’s not clear if the additional aid the US is sending will be enough, and say it depends on whether Putin continues to hold back his warplanes and if NATO allies make their own deliveries, the NYT reported.
In November, Ukraine received a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) which is produced by both the United States and Norway.
NASAMS include a radar, sensors, launchers that can be loaded with six missiles each and a mobile command center where soldiers can monitor airborne threats.
But western countries have also began providing Kyiv with more sophisticated systems – including German who sent IRIS-T air defense batteries, which each consist of a radar, a command-and-control system and three missile launchers, carrying a total of 24 missiles, the NYT reported.
Some officials have expressed concern about Ukraine’s low stockpile.
Another report of the leaked documents has the number of Russian fighter jets currently deployed in Ukraine at 485 compared with 85 Ukrainian jets.
However, European countries have stepped up efforts to reinforce the country’s air defenses, providing missiles for Ukraine’s existing systems, like its Soviet-era S-300s.
The intelligence breach could have a drastic impact upon the landscape of the conflict in Ukraine. Biden, left, is pictured meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky in February 2023
Despite the Biden administration pouring almost $200 billion into the Ukrainian military, the leak revealed that its stockpiles are severely depleted and it is low on air defense ammunition
The trove of leaked Pentagon documents suggests the US knows far more about Russia’s war campaign than Ukraine’s – despite funding the latter to the tune of $200 billion.
The documents, which were leaked online in recent days, portray the Russian military as struggling in their war with Ukraine, which has killed hundreds of thousands.
Intelligence agencies are believed to have comprehensively infiltrated Russia’s military and its leading spy agencies, offering considerable knowledge of upcoming maneuvers, as well as insights into how badly Putin’s war is going.
But the same cannot be said for Ukraine, according to the New York Times. The paper reported that ‘The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning.’
US officials have allegedly resorted to spying on Ukraine itself to try and get an idea of their military plans.
America also remains unsure of the total number of Ukrainian casualties – with the documents stating only that Zelensky’s forces have suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, and 17,500 dead.
Even then, intelligence officials say confidence in the accuracy of those figures are low.
Pictured: A villager is seen near a wracked car during heavy fighting at the front line of Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar, in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine in April 2023
A villager collects wood during heavy fighting at the front line of Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar
Smoke rises from the town of Bakhmut as heavy fighting for the control of the town continues
The United States has devoted most of its considerable spying resources to hindering Putin’s efforts and helping Ukraine.
But its spies have also been eavesdropping on allies, including Ukraine itself, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Israel.
The Times reported that Ukraine is being spied on in the hopes of getting a clearer picture of its military strategies, to try and help maximize the effectiveness of its army against Putin.
That comes despite the US spending $200 billion on advanced military hardware and spying equipment for Ukraine, with the cash credited for helping the country successfully hold-off Russian advances far longer than anyone thought necessary.
And while support for funding Ukraine continues to have bipartisan support, news that US officials are often in the dark could raise questions over the sheer amount of resources that the White House continues to send to Eastern Europe.
The documents, which included reports from late February to early March, also unearthed probes in several other nations, including South Korea, Iran and the UK
The documents have revealed the efficacy of US efforts to infiltrate Russian intelligence. Pictured: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, April 6, 2023
The 100 pages of documents, at least some of which are believed to be accurate, were leaked on a Discord server earlier this year.
They’ve triggered panic at the Pentagon, and a huge effort to work out where the leak is coming from.
Ukraine has suggested they’re not real, but Pentagon officials are said to be treating them as genuine, exposing another schism between the US and its costly ally.
They also appear to show that the intelligence services have been compromised as some reports contain daily real-time warnings on the timing and targets of Moscow’s strikes – which has enabled the U.S. to warn their Ukrainian counterparts.
The documents – while up to several months old – offer detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies have been most compromised, and clues as to how the United States has gleaned so much secret Kremlin information.
The documents – while up to several months old – offer detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies have been most compromised, and clues as to how the United States has gleaned so much secret Kremlin information
Officials say the breadth of topics addressed in the leaked documents, which touch on the war in Ukraine, China, the Middle East and Africa, suggest they may have been leaked by an American rather than an ally.
‘The focus now is on this being a U.S. leak, as many of the documents were only in U.S. hands,’ Michael Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, told Reuters in an interview.
The documents first appeared last month on social media websites, beginning with Discord and 4Chan. While some of the documents were posted weeks ago, their existence was first reported on Friday by the New York Times.
Some giving battlefield casualty estimates from Ukraine appeared to have been altered to minimize Russian losses. It is not clear why at least one is marked unclassified but includes top secret information. Some documents are marked ‘NOFORN,’ meaning they cannot be released to foreign nationals.
Leaked documents suggest the U.S. knows more about Putin’s war operations than Zelensky’s, which raises questions over the $200 billion in military aid that has been sent to Ukraine
The document leak indicates that the US has been spying on Ukrainian allied officials. Pictured: A Ukrainian serviceman in training exercises in Donetsk
Russia flagship Moskva was blown up by Ukrainian missiles last April and sunk in the Black Sea, leading to deaths of hundreds of servicemen. It was seen as a huge coup for Ukraine, whose forces have been given a steady stream of accurate intelligence on Russia that has proved devastating for Putin’s war effort
Two U.S. officials told Reuters on Sunday that they have not ruled out that the documents may have been doctored to mislead investigators as to their origin or to disseminate false information that may harm U.S. security interests.
The Pentagon has referred the issue to the Department of Justice, which has opened a criminal investigation.
Two U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that while there was concern about the leak at the Pentagon and intelligence agencies, the documents showed a snapshot in time from more than a month ago, rather than more recent assessments.
The two officials said the military and intelligence agencies were looking at their processes for how widely some of the intelligence is shared internally.
Officials are looking at what motivations a U.S. official or a group of officials would have in leaking such sensitive information, said one of the officials who spoke to Reuters.
The official said investigators were looking at four or five theories, from a disgruntled employee to an insider threat who actively wanted to undermine U.S. national security interests.
