Former President Donald Trump is still the clear primary frontrunner in a new DailyMail.com poll of Republicans in New Hampshire, but surging support for Tim Scott and Chris Christie have eaten into his double-digit lead over the field.
And the results spell more bad news for Ron DeSantis‘s misfiring campaign.
Although he remains in second place, he has dropped from 18 percent in April to 15 percent now, according to the poll conducted by J.L. Partners.
Overall, the survey of 591 registered Republicans and others planning to request a primary ballot shows that Trump wins the support of 42 percent, down from 51 percent in April.
Scott and Christie, who is staking his whole campaign on a strong showing in the Granite State, have seen their share of the vote increase since entering the race.
Our new poll shows the state of the Republican primary race in New Hampshire. The leading two candidates have seen their support share shrink as others have gained momentum
The contest for the Republican nomination is currently a race between Trump and DeSantis. But both have seen rivals eat into their numbers among New Hampshire primary voters
The former governor of New Jersey has climbed to eight percent (from two percent) tied with the South Carolina senator.
James Johnson, founder of J.L. Partners, said the increasingly crowded field had helped Trump.
‘The new kids on the block are on the up. That’s the story of our latest New Hampshire poll which shows Chris Christie and Tim Scott growing their support at the expense of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.
‘But despite Trump’s vote share taking a hit, it is the former president who benefits the most. The more varied the field, the more chance he has of winning the nomination. Trump remains the hot favorite for the New Hampshire primary.’
It means Trump’s lead over the field has dropped by six points since April. He also slips in one-on-one match-ups.
His lead over DeSantis dips by three points. In April, he led by 53 points to 33 points. Now it is 50 points to 33.
But it means DeSantis has failed to make headway since launching his campaign although there is a long way to go before January’s likely primary date.
Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St Anselm College, said Trump’s challengers had to do more.
Voters saw Trump as the incumbent, he said, making it essential for other candidates to strike a contrast with the frontrunner
Trump has seen his lead over DeSantis slip in a head-to-head matchup
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie have seen their share of the vote share increase but are still in single digits
‘I think New Hampshire voters are looking for someone who can tell them why they shouldn’t vote for Donald Trump because they know who he is and he delivered for them in a lot of ways,’ he said.
‘And they still support him. So why should they not vote for him?’
If runners are not creating that sort of contrast with a candidate polling at more than 40 percent, he added, then ‘it’s not a successful campaign.’
The dilemma facing Trump’s opponents: How to challenge him without alienating his powerful base of support.
Debbie Hart, 65, is part of that base. She was at an event at St Anselm College on Thursday to hear fifth placed Vivek Ramaswamy speak.
She said she wanted to hear from all the candidates, but was not sure there was anything that could sway her from picking Trump.
‘Just because he’s a fighter and he’s standing up for what’s right and I really think that he’ll be effective as long as nobody’s cheating,’ she said.
Ramaswamy appeared at St Anselm college on Thursday, his 150th grassroots appearance
A poll for DailyMail.com last month showed that DeSantis would have a better chance of beating President Joe Biden than Trump
Ninety minutes later, after hearing Ramaswamy’s populist attack on what he calls the ‘administrative state,’ Hart had something to add.
‘I do have a tipping point,’ she said of her support for Trump. ‘He already lost to Biden once.’
The survey for DailyMail.com was conducted from July 13 to 20, and has a 3.9 percent margin of error.
Other results show how the war in Ukraine could be a factor in the decision.
It found that 49 percent of voters said they wanted to cut U.S. assistance to Ukraine. And of those, some 32 percent said they wanted to reduce it by a lot.
Republicans also had a dim view of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, hailed as a hero in much of the world.
Only 13 percent said they had a ‘very favorable’ impression of the Ukrainian leader,
