Families face being hammered by an annual bill of up to £750million for 25 years for Scotland’s route to net zero.
They will face the ‘jaw-dropping’ upfront costs as a result of a mass shift away from conventional cars and gas boilers.
A new report by Scottish Government advisers published today (WED) sets out how ‘immediate action at pace and scale’ is needed to ensure Scotland becomes net zero.
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), an independent body set up to advise the Scottish and UK government on carbon emissions, set out a new ‘pathway’ for achieving the target, and said heat pumps and electric vehicles can be ‘deployed rapidly’ and help fuel the move.
But it set out that the total net cost of achieving net zero will be £750 million per year between this year and 2050.
It called for ‘policy support’ to help households with one-off costs but did not set out what proportion of the total bill will need to be funded by Scots families.
It led to calls for more detail from SNP ministers about how hard-pressed families and businesses will be supported with the eye-watering costs.
Scottish Conservative energy and net zero spokesman Douglas Lumsden said: ‘This report confirms the jaw-dropping costs that will have to be incurred if the SNP are to have any hope of hitting their net zero ambitions.
Gillian Martin, the Scottish Government’s acting Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy
‘What it doesn’t make clear is who is going to foot the bill for the £750 million worth of investment per year that the committee say will be required.
‘That will alarm hard-pressed families and businesses who will fear being hammered with higher bills if they are forced to carry the burden themselves.
‘John Swinney cannot ignore this report and pretend everything is fine with his current approach to tackling climate change. His SNP government have repeatedly failed to hit their own climate change targets and brought forward policies with little thought of the costs involved.’
The report sets out how ‘immediate action at pace and scale’ is needed to ensure Scotland becomes net zero.
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), an independent body set up to advise the Scottish and UK government on carbon emissions, set out a new ‘pathway’ for achieving the target, and said heat pumps and electric vehicles can be ‘deployed rapidly’ and help fuel the move.
But it set out that the total net cost of achieving net zero will be £750 million per year between this year and 2050.
It led to calls for more detail from SNP ministers about how hard-pressed families and businesses will be supported with the eye-watering costs.
The CCC said electric vehicles and heat pumps are ‘are available today and could be deployed rapidly’ if the right incentives are in place.
The total net cost of achieving net zero, including the installation of heat pumps, will be £750 million per year between this year and 2050
To achieve net zero, it said that three in five cars and vans on Scotland’s roads will need to be fully electric rather than diesel of petrol by 2035, rising to 94 per cent by 2045, compared to 2.2 per cent of cars and 0.8 per cent of vans in 2023.
It also said that 40 per cent of existing homes will need to be heated by low-carbon electric systems rather than fossil fuel boilers by 2035, rising to 92 per cent by 2045 and all by 2050.
Capacity for offshore and onshore wind turbines must triple from 15 gigawatts (GW) in 2023 to 49GW by 2035, according to the CCC, and then to 66GW by 2045.
The CCC report said: ‘When combining capital and operating costs, we expect the Balanced Pathway to result in a net saving during the early 2040s.
‘On average, there will be a net cost of around £750 million per year between 2025 and 2050, which is around 0.4 per cent of Scotland’s GDP.’
It said that it is ‘disappointing’ that Scottish Government plans to force homeowners to upgrade heating systems to low-carbon technologies when they are sold have been ‘abandoned’ without any alternative measures to ensure heating reaching net zero by 2045.
In its key recommendations, the CCC said emissions should be cut by 57 per cent below 1990 levels between 2026 and 2030, then 69 per cent between 2031 and 2035, 80 per cent between 2036 and 2040, and 94 per cent from 2041 to 2045.
It called for SNP ministers to ‘urgently’ consult on setting minimum energy efficiency standards for private homes, and on measures to transition from fossil fuel heating to low-carbon alternatives.
The report also said: ‘Getting to Net Zero by 2045 will require immediate action, at pace and scale. While the Committee offers advice, decisions on the exact pathway and policies within devolved powers are for the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament.’
The Scottish Government previously dropped plans to cut emissions by 75 per cent by 2030 after admitting it was not achievable. The CCC estimates its ‘balanced pathway’ would allow this to be achieved in 2036.
Scottish Labour net zero spokesman Sarah Boyack said: ‘The SNP has already torn up one set of targets – we urgently need a real plan to meet the Scottish Government’s remaining targets.’
Scottish Liberal Democrat climate emergency spokesman Liam McArthur said: ‘To date the Scottish Government haven’t delivered when it comes to the hard graft of insulating homes, creating good green jobs and making sure everyone benefits from the transition to net zero.
‘If Scotland is going to meet its vital net zero targets then we are going to need more than just hot air from the Scottish Government.’
Friends of the Earth Scotland head of campaigns Caroline Rance said: ‘It’s time for Swinney to stop kicking the can down the road and get on with action that will reduce climate pollution and improve the lives of people across Scotland – warm homes, reliable public transport, and a fair and fast transition away from expensive, polluting fossil fuels.’
Acting Net Zero Secretary Gillian Martin said: ‘I am grateful for the latest advice from the Climate Change Committee on Scotland’s Carbon Budgets.
‘We will carefully consider the Committee’s advice before bringing forward regulations to set carbon budget levels for Scotland. This will include consideration of the target setting criteria set out under the act, and an assessment of whether the pace of decarbonisation is appropriate for people, sectors and businesses across Scotland.
‘The carbon budgets proposed via secondary legislation must provide an achievable pathway to net zero in 2045 – one which delivers better health outcomes, puts more money in people’s pockets, and leaves no workers behind.
‘That is the approach the Scottish Government has always taken, and measures announced in our Programme for Government like abolishing peak rail fares for good and delivering 24,000 additional public electric vehicle charge points by 2030, will contribute to that.
‘That will be followed by a new Climate Change Plan, outlining our policies and proposals for reducing emissions between 2026 and 2040. This will be brought forward shortly after the carbon budget secondary legislation has been approved.’
