Let us imagine how we will feel in two weeks’ time. Just two weeks. If the polls are to be believed, there’ll be a Labour Government with an enormous majority.
One poll by Savanta last week suggested that the Tories could be reduced to a rump of 53 seats — a few more than the Lib Dems — with Labour winning 516 seats. That would give it a Commons majority of 382.
No political party has ever enjoyed such dominance since the dawn of the democratic age. Other than a few Labour diehards, there can’t be many people who would welcome such an outcome. I find the prospect terrifying. Perhaps you do too.
Sir Keir Starmer is a cautious man. But who can doubt that, with a lead of this magnitude, he would feel emboldened to introduce hitherto concealed policies that would transform our country? He would rule unchecked. He could do whatever he pleased.
The extraordinary thing is that it’s voters of the centre-Right — people such as myself, and possibly you — who are about to hand the Labour leader carte blanche to govern Britain in whichever way he chooses.
It’s the centre-Right – people like you and me – who are about to hand Sir Keir Starmer carte blanche to govern Britain in whichever way he chooses, writes STEPHEN GLOVER
I, too, am exasperated by the Tories. They have in many ways wasted 14 years. They have been shambolic, timid and sometimes dishonest. This latest betting scandal is shameful. In failing to suspend suspected miscreants, Rishi Sunak has been characteristically indecisive.
Irony of ironies, when the PM is decisive he often makes the wrong decision — for example, his calling of the election when good news about the economy was only a trickle. Why not wait until November, by which time it could be a gurgling stream? Perhaps he’ll tell us in his memoirs.
So, yes, I can understand the frustration that so many feel with Mr Sunak and the Conservative Party because I share it. If the Tories were closer to Labour in the polls, it would be perfectly reasonable for voters on the centre-Right to say that Rishi and Co have had their chance, and it’s time to let someone else have a shot.
But it’s not like that. We’re facing the impending disintegration of the Conservative Party and the possible installation of Labour as the permanent party of government. This is almost entirely the consequence of the emergence of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Some of my friends say they’ll vote Reform, and most give similar reasons. Like me, they’re furious that the Tories should have raised tax to its highest level since the war, while allowing welfare payments to balloon.
Like me, they are amazed that this Conservative Government could have let legal immigration soar to record levels — didn’t it hear one of the loudest messages of Brex-it? — and failed to stem the boats crossing the Channel.
And, again like me, my friends are disappointed that Brexit should have so far proved a damp squib — and is plainly regarded by many ministers as an embarrassment, not to be discussed during the campaign.
Yet surely it’s clear to everyone, including, I believe, Nigel Farage, that in each of these areas a Labour government would be far, far worse than the Tories.
I can understand the frustration felt by many at Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party, but a Labour government would be far, far worse than the Tories
Labour is now scarcely bothering to hide its intention to increase capital gains tax and property taxes, which will disproportionally affect older people thinking of voting Reform. (As it gets closer to its expected landslide victory, Labour is more confident in letting slip its true plans: witness its new disclosure that it will make it easier to change gender.)
Meanwhile, Labour’s proposals to control legal and illegal immigration are laughably vague. It has indicated in recent days that it will make overtures to Brussels, which will doubtless mark the start of our slow, humiliating return to the EU.
In other words, however great the anger of many centre-Right voters about Conservative failures, they should recognise that Labour would drive them to new heights of fury. The Tories in opposition might learn the errors of their ways. Labour is a pro-high tax, pro-mass immigration, pro-EU party at its heart, and always will be.
As I say, Nigel Farage knows that Labour stands for everything he abhors, and yet he is facilitating its huge majority. He is pulling down the pillars of the Temple like Samson, on the assumption that he will be able to rebuild it. But what if he can’t?
Even the most optimistic of polls — optimistic, that is, for Reform — envisage the party having only a handful of MPs despite taking millions of votes from the Tories. The same polls suggest that the Conservatives would be reduced to an ineffectual remnant.
It would be a party deprived of most of its best and brightest MPs (there are some) with a brain that has been lobotomised. For the Right to recover from such a rout could take a generation.
A word about Farage. I admire him for his bravery. Brexit wouldn’t have happened without him. But who can deny that there is an element of arrogance and vanity about the man, and that he takes a very broad brush to some issues?
When it was revealed last week that Reform contains more than its fair share of nutcases and extremists, the response of its irrepressible leader was to blame poor vetting by others. But it’s his party! In fact, rather oddly, he legally owns 55 per cent of it.
As for his remarks about Vladimir Putin, he had a point when he said last week that Russia had felt encircled by Nato and the EU. But that doesn’t begin to justify the invasion of Ukraine and the killing of thousands of civilians. Instead of condemning Putin’s war crimes, the ever bumptious Farage boasted of having been right ten years ago in predicting war.
Nigel Farage sees himself as the saviour of the British Right. I don’t. How could he be when he’s hellbent on destroying the Conservative Party which, for all its recent mistakes, has achieved great things for our country?
While I admire Farage’s bravery, who can deny there is an element of vanity and arrogance about the man?
There are dozens of constituencies in which Tories and Labour are neck-and-neck, and Reform candidates, though having no chance of winning, could hand victory to Sir Keir Starmer.
According to a recent YouGov poll, Labour is on course to win 425 seats and the Tories 108. But if Reform were to receive only the proportion of votes won by Ukip in 2015 and the Brexit Party in 2019, Labour would have 334 seats and the Conservatives 224.
That wouldn’t be a wipeout. The Tories could recover, find themselves a new leader, and get their act together. But they can only do this if millions of those thinking of voting Reform think again.
I can understand people wanting to punish the Tories. I can see that they are irritated with Rishi. What I can’t appreciate is how anyone on the centre-Right could wish to be involved in the creation of a Labour one-party state. Viewed in this context, the gambling scandal, though disgraceful, is a relative sideshow.
My belief is that Labour will fail in government, and fail soon. Millions will be disenchanted. But Sir Keir Starmer’s failures won’t count against him — they will scarcely register — unless there is a strong Conservative opposition able to stand up to him.
