Donald Trump’s odds to win the Oval Office are now at -156 following Joe Biden’s decision to drop out – meaning oddsmakers view him as being 61 percent likely to surface as the next president come November.
It stood as a a slight dip from a day ago when the president’s odds were pegged at 64 percent, suggesting some uncertainty as Democrats mull a new candidate.
In contrast, Biden’s odds plummeted to essentially zero, according to PredictIt – as his Vice President, Kamala Harris, saw her odds rise to +163. That’s up from the +900 seen just days ago on July 16, and way up from back in June, before Biden’s disastrous debate performance, when her chances were at an even lower +2400.
This means oddsmakers have pegged her as being 12 times more likely at pulling of a win as she was a month ago, when handicappers saw Biden’s odds as around 50-50.
That statistic has since halved six times over, as the election rapidly approaches. As it does, other figures have some surprising odds as well, from California’s Gavin Newsom to former First Lady Michelle Obama.
Donald Trump’s odds to win the Oval Office are now at -178 after Joe Biden’s decision to drop out – meaning oddsmakers view him as being 62 percent likely to serve as the next president
It stood as a a slight dip from a day ago when the president’s odds were pegged at 64 percent, suggesting some uncertainty as Democrats mull a replacement for the newly bowed out Biden
While not the most reliable of information aggregators due to journalists and political staffers being disallowed from casting, the site and its odds marker is widely considered an effective and reliable measure of predicting elections.
It is also the only presidential odds market that has a federal exemption for research reasons – as such markets, strictly speaking, are not exactly legal.
But despite repeated attempts to upend it by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), this one is – and now shows Trump comfortably leading despite a small slip-up seemingly triggered by Biden’s decision to bow out.
He started the day with a line of -178, now down to -156.
Harris, meanwhile, started last week as a long-shot with 10-1 odds, even as many pegged her as the apparent replacement as many called on Biden to drop out.
This prospect took a step closer to becoming a reality almost immediately Sunday, after her old running mate took to X to make the highly anticipated announcement.
Within seconds, her chances spiked by nine percent, after already improving by some 17 percent over the course of last week.
The next-most dramatic shift was sported by Biden, whose stock slipped from +567 to nearly 100-1 again in seconds, after sloping down from 48 percent since his debate last month.
Most likely replacement Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president, saw her odds rise drastically to +178 – up from the +900 seen just days ago
This means oddsmakers have pegged her as being 12 times more likely at pulling of a win as she was a month ago, when handicappers saw Biden’s odds as around 50-50. That statistic has since halved six times over. As the election looms, others had some surprising odds as well
Despite confirming in his statement he would be ‘stand[ing] down,’ PredictIt sitll pegged him as having a small, 1 percent chance of somehow still snagging the Democratic nomination.
This comes ahead of the highly anticipated Democratic Convention, where, for the first time in decades, a candidate will likely be chosen by delegate votes just ahead of the event.
This concept, however, failed too see other candidates experience a surge in their odds as well, as Biden put to bed any doubt after his announcement by singling out Harris with his own endorsement.
Also offering her official seal of approval was former Democratic candidate and Trump victim Hillary Clinton, who, while not ranked on PredictIt, sported a similar +9900 line on competing market Oddschecker.com at getting the Democratic nomination, and +10000 for the full presidency.
That means the site views her as being just shy of a 100-1 shot, similar to fellow endorser Biden.
Most of Harris’s prospective competition, meanwhile, saw their odds stay relatively the same, with Newsom boasting a line of +2400 – or 24 to 1 – unchanged from the day before.
Most of Harris’s prospective competition, meanwhile, saw their odds stay relatively the same, with California’s Gavin Newsom boasting a line of +2400 – unchanged from the day before
Other Democrats like United States Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg saw their chances stay at around a measly one percent.
Michelle, meanwhile, was not even ranked by PredictIt, but on Oddchecker, she sported a line of +4300.
This means oddsmakers there see her as being more than twice as likley to assume the presidency than Clinton, but is still a massive underdog.
That said, Oddschecker granted Harris a line of +275, meaning oddsmakers running the site see the prospect as less likely than those at Predictit.
This is a developing story; please check back for updates.
