Right-leaning voters flirting with the idea of Reform could cost the Tories 110 seats and gift Sir Keir Starmer a ‘super-majority’, analysis shows.
Fearing handing Labour a ‘blank cheque’ in the July 4 election, senior Conservative figures including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have warned a wipe-out would only hand a ‘socialist’ Prime Minister power.
Mega-polls published last week suggest the Tories are on track to hold just 126 MPs, in what would be the party’s worst electoral result for over a century.
Labour are forecasted to clinch 439, with them on track to eclipse even Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide victory.
But MailOnline analysis today shows the extent to which Sir Keir’s majority would be dented if disillusioned Tory voters contemplating a shift to Nigel Farage’s party were tempted to return to the Conservative fold.
Under current aggregated projections, the Tories are fewer than 5 points behind the biggest party in 63 seats.
Rishi Sunak’s party are 10 points off first place in 117, in total.
That is based on an average of three of the latest MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) polls from YouGov, Survation and More in Common.
Reform’s high polling numbers could allow Labour candidates to inch past Tory incumbents in dozens of local races, despite the fact that the insurgent party is not currently forecast to win any seats.
Mr Farage’s party are currently polling above 10 per cent in 324 constituencies, including 82 where the Tories are trailing by the same amount or less.
If there were just a five point swing from Reform to the Tories in each constituency then, based on current projections, a Labour majority would be nearly cut in half to 132 seats, instead of 228.
In this scenario, Sir Keir’s party would win 391 seats while Mr Sunak’s would get 189, saving 63 compared with current projections.
If the polls shift even further, with as much as a 10 point swing from Reform to the Conservatives in every constituency, then they could save 110 seats compared with current projections, winning 236 seats against Labour’s 349.
A swing this extreme would trim Sir Keir’s currently projected majority even further, to just 48.
In reality, Reform voters would be unlikely to move to Tories en masse. Many Britons toying with the idea of opting for Mr Farage’s party on election day are also former Labour or non-voters, as opposed to being disillusioned Conservatives.
The Brexit Party agreed to not stand candidates in 317 Tory-held constituencies in 2019, in order to make way for Boris Johnson to ‘Get Brexit Done’ and get his deal through Parliament.
But this year, Reform are running in 600-plus seats in England, Wales and Scotland, with Mr Farage’s ultimate aim being an eventual ‘takeover’ of the Tory party in the event of a devastating loss.
Reform enjoyed a four-point boost in polls after Mr Farage announced his return to the political front line earlier this month. The veteran Brexiteer, now party leader, is standing in the ex-UKIP territory of Clacton, Essex.
The party is narrowing the gap with the Conservatives, which has fallen from 23 per cent of the vote share last week to 21 per cent, according to one poll.
Reform is now just six points behind with 15 per cent.
Mr Farage yesterday said that he would be happy to lead a ‘merged’ Conservative and Reform party in opposition.
When asked to rule out leading the Conservatives in the future by LBC’s Nick Ferrari, Mr Farage said: ‘I think something new is going to emerge on the centre right.
‘I don’t know what it’s called, but do I think I’m capable of leading a national opposition to a Labour party with a big majority, where I can stand them up and hold them to account on issues? Yes.’
He said that he would be happy to lead a ‘merged party’, but not the Conservatives ‘in their current form’, which he said may be ‘dead’, in any case.
Rishi Sunak at the Borgo Egnazia resort for the G7 Summit hosted by Italy in Apulia yesterday
Top Tories have delivered stark warnings to prospective Reform voters not to hand Sir Keir a ‘super-majority’ and give unchecked power.
Mr Hunt appeared to concede that the Tories are heading for defeat at the General Election, but the Chancellor warned that voting for Reform would hand Labour ‘an even bigger majority’.
Mr Hunt told Politico’s Power Play podcast: ‘All that a vote for Reform does is give Labour an even bigger majority.
‘And that is a polar opposite of what most Reform voters want. So it doesn’t solve any problem to vote Reform.’
The Chancellor admitted his own seat is in jeopardy, saying: ‘It could be a strong Conservative majority or it could be a seat that falls spectacularly to the Lib Dems.’
Mr Hunt also acknowledged that Britons feel ‘battered’ by the cost-of-living crisis and want to ‘hold the guys at the top to account’. He conceded that the Government has failed to deliver its pledge to stop small boats from crossing the English Channel.
His admission of voters’ discontent with the Tory record comes after Mr Sunak acknowledged that people were ‘frustrated’ with him and admitted the Tories ‘have not got everything right’ at his party’s manifesto launch.
But the PM insisted he had ‘absolutely not’ lost hope of winning the election after Grant Shapps’ intervention yesterday, when he said that granting Labour a ‘super-majority’ would hand ‘unchecked’ power to a party whose ‘plans are so vague… you have no idea what they actually want to change’.
Sir Keir Starmer launches the Labour manifesto at Co-op HQ in Manchester yesterday
Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron said he did not want to ‘insult’ Reform voters, but added they will help to bring in a Labour government.
He told Times Radio: ‘Like me, they want to see strong defences in an uncertain world, they want to see a secure border in a dangerous world, they want to see lower taxes in a world where families are struggling and need that extra help.
‘The things they want are things only a Conservative government can deliver, by voting Reform you make them less likely, not more likely.’
Asked if his heart sank when Mr Farage announced he was standing, Lord Cameron replied: ‘I don’t think my heart did anything particularly, it was just you know, I’m very focused on winning for the blue team.’
Indicating a new ‘damage limitation’ strategy, a Tory social media advert also warned that voting Reform or Lib Dem could hand the Sir Keir the ‘largest majority Labour have ever had’.
Former attorney general Sir Geoffrey Cox also warned yesterday: ‘If you believe the polls… we are sleepwalking into a one-party socialist state.
‘The consequences would be horrific, not just for the Conservative Party and for the country, but also for Labour because having an opposition is important.’
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaks to LBC’s Nick Ferrari on the Breakfast show yesterday
This comes after Sir Keir failed to rule out a host of tax rises last night as he squirmed during a Sky News special election debate last night over his past support for Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.
He insisted he only backed his left-wing predecessor in saying he would make a ‘great PM’ because he was ‘certain’ Labour was going to lose.
But he still came out on top in a snap poll to deepen Rishi Sunak’s woes with the Labour leader coming across as more trustworthy, likeable, in touch with ordinary people and prime ministerial.
A panel of MailOnline readers echoed those thoughts with the majority of viewers believing the opposition leader beat the Prime Minister.
Mr Sunak yesterday stayed defiant and insisted he had ‘absolutely not’ given up hope of winning the election amid a bruising week for the PM in which he has seen his approval rating plummet below Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
He added he will continue to ‘keep fighting hard until the last day of this election’, and reiterated his apology for his ‘mistake’ of leaving D-Day commemorations early.
