A massive leak of classified Pentagon documents that revealed how the U.S. is infiltrating Russian intelligence could give Putin’s war effort in Ukraine a huge boost.
The intelligence breach could do damage to Ukraine’s war effort, by exposing what the U.S. knows about the Russia war machine, giving the Kremlin a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information.
The documents – while up to several months old – offer detailed insights into which Russian intelligence agencies have been most compromised, and clues as to how the United States has gleaned so much secret Kremlin information.
Officials say it may be impossible to track the original source of the leak because possibly thousands of U.S. government officials have the security clearances needed to access the documents.
Pentagon officials are said to be launching a huge probe into the leak. The leaked documents shared online – at least some of which are believed to be genuine – consist of photographs of printed sheets of paper.
Classified documents can only normally be printed using a secure process, which may make it easier for officials to find the source of the leak.
A massive leak of classified Pentagon documents that revealed how the U.S. is infiltrating Russian intelligence could give Putin’s war effort in Ukraine a huge boost
In recent days, photos that were posted to several social media platforms showed the documents as if someone had taken them from a secure area, unfolded them from their pocket and quickly took pictures of the papers, an official said.
Aric Toler, head of research and training at the Bellingcat investigative consortium, said Saturday that the photos were posted by the Thug Shaker Central on Discord, but DailyMail.com was unable to find the group on on the platform Saturday.
A probe was launched Friday by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Justice Department as investigators are trying to quickly identify the source of the breach.
The documents, which included reports from late February to early March, also unearthed spying against allies including South Korea, Israel, Ukraine and the UK, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The CIA kept tabs on Israel intelligence service Mossad’s encouragement of antigovernmental protests in Israel, but nothing is known about how the other nations were spited on.
The intelligence breach could actually help Putin, and do damage to Ukraine’s war effort, by exposing what the U.S. knows about the Russia war machine, giving the Kremlin a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information
While the breach underscored America’s ability to infiltrate Moscow’s upper echelons, it has also sparked fears that Russian intelligence may now have a clearer understanding of exactly what the US does and does not already understand, providing an opportunity to cut off sources of information.
The documents are said to offer exceptional levels of detail on Russian strategy, plans as well as on casualty numbers, suggesting the leak was not shared by Russia itself.
They’re said to have provided invaluable insights into Putin’s planned targets, giving Ukraine advance warning of which assets the Russians would seek to attack or destroy.
According to the documents, Russia has suffered 199,500 to 223,000 casualties, and 43,000 troops killed in action. The severity of the other casualties’ injuries is unclear.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has suffered between 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, with 17,500 fighters dying in battle. Officials did temper those figures by saying they had ‘low confidence’ in their accuracy.
The leak comes amid speculation that a wave of classified document breaches could be being orchestrated by Russia, in what was described by a senior intelligence official as ‘a nightmare for the Five Eyes’ – a reference to the intelligence sharing agreement between the United States, Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
Andriy Chernyak, a spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence, described the leaked documents as an ‘operation by Russia’s special services,’ according to the WSJ.
‘This will in no way affect our continued cooperation with allies,’ he said.
However, some experts who have studied the documents expressed doubt that the breach is part of a Russian disinformation campaign.
Toler, whose investigative consortium has done several probes of Russian intelligence operations, said he believed he had traced the posting back to Thug Shaker Central on Discord, which was then reposting by users to a bigger group.
He explained that the original group has since been wiped clean, along with a bigger trove of documents.
‘I really doubt this is some Russian op, so there’s a good chance only a few internet weirdos saw the hundreds of documents,’ Eliot Higgins, the founder of Bellingcat, told the WSJ. ‘It’s really only something you’d find if you were terminally online.’
The documents, which included reports from late February to early March, also unearthed probes in several other nations, including South Korea, Iran and the UK
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Kyiv decided to adopt new measures to prevent unauthorized disclosure of its military plans ahead of the counteroffensive
Now, US military officials are able to provide real-time warnings to their Ukrainian counterparts about impending strikes in exact locations, indicating exhaustive intelligence gathering in the region.
Notably, the documents covered intimate details about the spread of US military spying across the globe. Per multiple reports, this included classified information about Iran’s nuclear program and North Korea’s missile systems.
In Ukraine, the documents suggested a misalignment between US and Ukrainian military strategies, with intelligence reports appearing to show the US continues to spy on top military and political leaders in the region.
American officials told the New York Times that while the leak underscores the Pentagon’s capacity to collect information on Russia’s strategies, it remains to be seen whether their sources of information will be hampered by the revelations.
Officials told the outlet that the Pentagon has issued a swift lock down of sensitive briefing documents following the leak.
However, the scandal is already being noted as one of the most damaging national security breaches in recent memory, which may have further implications into the legitimacy of US espionage into the future.
Per the outlet, a senior Western intelligence official said the release could curb intelligence sharing between agencies, as trust over secretive information collaborations could be lost.
The intelligence breach could have a drastic impact upon the landscape of the conflict in Ukraine. US President Biden, left, is pictured meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky in February
Joe Biden, seen in Washington DC on Tuesday. His administration confirmed the leaked documents were real, but said some aspects had been doctored
Assurances over the validity of the US military’s spying apparatus is set to be further disrupted by revelations that America’s focus extends far beyond its Russian enemies.
Allied nations, such as South Korea, have also reportedly been the subject of spying by the Pentagon, raising questions as to the diplomatic impact the leak could have at a time of deteriorating global ties.
The documents, which were posted on social media sites including Twitter, Discord and Telegram, have also highlighted the devastating impact the war in Ukraine has had on both sides of the conflict.
Despite the Biden administration pouring almost $200 billion into the Ukrainian military, the leak revealed that its stockpiles are severely depleted and it is low on air defense ammunition.
But with Russian forces also found to be struggling, reports indicate a renewed push backed by western forces in the coming months.
One of the leaks, reportedly posted to Telegram, detailed ‘a secret plan to prepare and equip nine brigades of the Amed Forces of Ukraine by the US and NATO for the spring offensive.’
The Biden administration has not denied the legitimacy of the leak, but it did claim that certain documents had been doctored.
An FBI probe was launched Friday to determine the source of the leak, however a senior official told The New York Times that tracking down the perpetrator could prove difficult because a large number of officials have the security clearances needed to access the information.
The document leak indicates that the US has been spying on Ukrainian allied officials. Pictured: A Ukrainian serviceman in training exercises in Donetsk
The documents have revealed the efficacy of US efforts to infiltrate Russian intelligence. Pictured: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, April 6, 2023
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pictured at the Pentagon on March 30, 2023
According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials scrambled Saturday to assess the potential fallout of the scandal.
A wide-ranging, multi-agency investigation into the intelligence breach is set to be escalated, with officials reportedly fearing that US national security matters could be significantly compromised.
On Friday, a series of documents were posted on controversial message board 4Chan that covered both the war efforts in Ukraine as well as operations in China and the Middle East.
The reports included photographs of charts of weapons that are set to be transported to Ukraine, alongside determinations into the strength of ground troops in the region.
Among the documents leaked Friday was a map depicting the impact of the war in the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, which has been the center of fierce fighting for six months.
It was not clear if the map had been altered, as American authorities have claimed about some of the leaked information.
